Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Last fall, we released a paper tracking homebuying behavior through the pandemic and post-pandemic period. We found that, despite pandemic headwinds and a reduction in housing inventories, many types ...

Multimodal LLMs offer a watershed change for the digitization of historical tables, enabling low-cost processing centered on domain expertise rather than technical skills. We rigorously validate an ...

These enhanced communications have had considerable benefits. First, they have increased the public’s understanding of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and commitments. Second, as research has ...

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) can be seen as a shock containing information about the future path of total factor productivity (TFP), that is, a TFP news shock. Using a standard ...

As a community-engaged bank, the SF Fed seeks out real-time information on economic conditions by engaging with and learning from businesses, community organizations, and local leaders. These ...

To gauge the factors driving inflation during different periods, I use the demand-driven and supply-driven components of 12-month PCE inflation constructed by Shapiro (2025). The methodology ...

I serve as a senior outreach manager at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and my team works to understand the economic experiences of low- and moderate-income communities, including rural ...